CIPHER BRIEF EXPERTS ARRIVE IN KYIV: This week’s DD is a day late. And it’s not because our spies blew their deadline. It’s because a lot of Cipher Brief experts and members of the senior team were on a train out of Kyiv at deadline time and well, let’s just say internet connection can be ‘iffy’ in a country that is both trying to live and at the same time, fight for its future. Five Cipher Brief Experts sat on a panel at this year’s Kyiv Security Forum, assessing intelligence efforts by both Moscow and Kyiv since the start of Russia’s full-scale invasion in February, 2022. If you’re wondering what things are like in the Ukrainian capital some three years after Russian paratroopers dropped in and started killing people – note that the TCB team was met on arrival by air raid sirens and a barrage of anti-aircraft fire that sounded like a combination of big booms overhead and machine gun fire right outside the door. A stark reminder of how Ukrainian civilians still have to live every single day, not to mention what the front lines are like. Watch for more reporting from the trip on The Cipher Brief’sLinkedIn page where Cipher Brief CEO & Publisher Suzanne Kelly also posts behind-the-scenes pics from the trip.
DON’T RAIN (ORDNANCE) ON MY PARADE: A lot of former senior officers from CIA who spent their careers focused on better understanding Russian intentions toward the U.S., told The Cipher Brief that Russian President Vladimir Putin’s call for a 3-day ceasefire last week was nothing more than a tactic to ensure that Kyiv didn’t target Russia’s Victory Day parade in Moscow. The New York Times quoted Ukrainian military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov suggesting that those attending the parade should “bring earplugs.” Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Cipher Brief expert retired Admiral Jim Stavridis said on X he didn’t interpret the earplug recommendation as criticism of Russia’s marching bands. (For extra credit reading this week, see how Ukraine’s military intelligence chief thought the war would end, when he met with The Cipher Brief back in February, 2023.)
From nuclear submarines to Ukraine's use of unmanned systems, experts are gathering at The Cipher Brief’s NatSecEDGE conference June 5-6 in Austin, TX to talk about the future of war. Be a part of the conversation.
SPEAKING OF PARADES: In last week’s Dead Drop, we told you how Secretary of the Navy John Phelan commented on the day that will live in infamy, the Japanese bombing of Pearl Harbor on social media – only Phelan’s posts wouldn’t have withstood a history check since got the date wrong by six months. President Trump may have inadvertently provided Phelen some cover though as a way to say “hold my (non-alcoholic) beer.” The U.S. president issued his own late-night post on May 1 declaring that the United States would now mark May 8th as “Victory Day” to celebrate the end of World War II. One problem was that, for the U.S., the war did not end until August 1945 when the Japanese surrendered. The President also announced that he was renaming November 11th “Victory Day for World War I” changing the name from Veterans Day as it has been called since 1954 when the name was changed from “Armistice Day.” The President said he was making the changes because, “We won both Wars, nobody was close to us in terms of strength, bravery, or military brilliance, but we never celebrate anything — That’s because we don’t have leaders anymore, that know how to do so! We are going to start celebrating our victories again!” The decisions announced in the May Day “truth” lasted only about four days, however. On May 5th, the White House said that Veterans Day will remain the name of the November 11th event – but that they will issue a separate proclamation declaring it “Victory Day for World War I” as well. And the World War II victory day has now been modified to “Victory in Europe Day” for May 8th. Phew. So glad we cleared all that up!
HARD TARGET: Ice hard. The Wall Street Journal reported recently that U.S. intelligence agencies have been ordered to increase their espionage and analysis efforts against Greenland. Yep, you read that right. The paper quotes “several high-ranking officials” serving under DNI Tulsi Gabbard as confirming that a “collection emphasis message” was sent out last week. The focus would include gathering intel on Greenland’s “independence movement” and mining views, as there in U.S. interest in extracting resources from the island. Instead of neither confirming or denying the report Gabbard said, “The Wall Street Journal should be ashamed of aiding deep state actors who seek to undermine the President by politicizing and leaking classified information. They are breaking the law and undermining our nation’s security and democracy.”
MILLER TIME? The President said recently that he would name a full-time National Security Advisor – like maybe in six months or so and he added that controversial White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller was a leading candidate. Miller, in turn, waxed eloquent about Rubio’s abilities (calling him the “Henry Kissinger of our time”) – which sounded to us like currying favor with Rubio so that when he cries "No más" after juggling so many hats, he thinks kindly of Miller. Meanwhile, questions arose like: will Rubio change lower-level NSC staffers in the interim? Other names that surfaced as possible Waltz successors: Middle East envoy and real estate guru Steve Witkoff, former Ambassador Rick Grenell, NSC official Seb Gorka, retired Lieutenant General Keith Kellogg, and the State Department’s director of policy planning, Michael Anton. Whenever there is a permanent National Security Advisor named, that person will probably bring a whole new set of staffers under them to help try and keep a lid on things.
THE BOURNE REDUNDANCY: DOWNSIZING THE IC: Late last week, The Washington Post reported that the administration is eyeing some significant cuts in its spying organizations. Members of Congress have reportedly been informed that the Trump administration plans to “reduce the CIA’s workforce by about 1,200 personnel over several years and cut thousands more from other parts of the U.S. intelligence community.” Perhaps reducing a bit of the anxiety at Langley, Liberty Crossing (the home of the DNI), and Fort Meade (NSA’s HQ), the Post said “The staff reductions would take place over several years and would be accomplished in part through reduced hiring. No outright firings are envisioned.” Apparently, a lot of the thinning out of the IC so far has come via the promotion of early resignation incentives known as the “Fork in the Road.” Early in the administration, there were some outright firings – particularly of people who had the misfortune of finding themselves in “DEI” jobs on January 20th – or certain “probationary employees” – people who had only recently come aboard and therefore lacked the job protections that other long-term employees might enjoy.
SECRETARY OF RETRIBUTION: Among those shown the door at CIA, according to The New York Times, was the Agency’s top doc, Dr. Terry Adirim, who had only recently arrived to run the agency’s Center for Global Health Services. Adirim came to CIA from the Department of Defense. Some media have speculated that she earned the displeasure of Ivan Raiklin, who the Times calls a “far-right provocateur” and who calls himself the “secretary of retribution.” Adirim’s possible offense? Being an advocate of the COVID-19 vaccine mandate for the Pentagon. According to a lawsuit she filed, she was told on April 4 that she was going to be fired but her supervisor had “no information” as to why. Dr. Adirim’s lawyer seems to think that another right-wing activist, Laura Loomer (who claims credit for getting NSA director General Timothy Haugh fired), may have been behind Adirim’s axing as well. What’s especially noteworthy is that Adirim’s firing was happened just one month short of when she would have qualified for full federal retirement benefits.
WHAT’S A GENERAL WORTH: Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced his intention to cut at least 20% of the four-star generals and admirals in the military. His rationale is efficiency. At last check, there were 38 four-stars on active duty. So, a 20% cut would mean about 8 would have to go. It is true there were far fewer four-stars during World War II (we challenge you to find even one Space Force 4-star from WWII.) Would cutting eight 4-stars result in saving big bucks? It depends on your point of view. The combined salary and allowances for the gang of 8 would amount to about $2 million dollars a year. For comparison – that is a little less than what Fox News was paying Hegseth when he worked as a weekend host for Fox and Friends last year.
NO CONFLICT ZONE: If there is anyone with more balls in the air than Secretary of State/National Security Advisor Marco Rubio – it might be Tim Parlatore. The Naval Academy graduate is a personal attorney for Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth – and periodically he puts on a naval reserve commander’s uniform to advise Hegseth on official Pentagon matters (reportedly about leaks among other things.) But in his civilian role as a lawyer, Parlatore is suing the Navy and also defending private clients who have run afoul of the Pentagon and the U.S. government. Politico laid out some of the complications of Parlatore’s complex list of clients. Parlatore said on X that he turned down a full-time position on Hegseth’s staff because he didn’t want to “create any conflicts.”
POCKET LITTER: Dead Droplets and bits and pieces of interesting /weird stuff we discovered:
WHERE DO NOVELISTS COME UP WITH THESE WACKY IDEAS? M.P. Woodward, is a NYT best-selling author who has written a series of spy novels that have the word “Tom Clancy” in big letters on the cover and “a Jack Ryan Jr. Novel” in smaller letters. Woodward is coming out with a new novel published by the U.S. Naval Institute Press (the original home of Jack Ryan Sr.). Woodward’s book, called Red Tide: A Novel of the Next Pacific War, is said to be about China launching a surprise attack to seize Taiwan’s chip empire. The book comes out September 16th. With luck, that will be prior to any actual surprise Chinese attacks on Taiwan, but let’s face it, no one really knows.
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